Gujarat Loksabha Elections

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ભારતના પશ્ચિમ ક્ષેત્રમાં આવેલું ગુજરાત 1960માં રચાયેલું દેશનું મહત્વપૂર્ણ રાજ્ય છે. ગાંધીનગર ગુજરાતનું પાટનગર છે. રાજસ્થાન, મધ્યપ્રદેશ અને મહારાષ્ટ્રની સરહદો ગુજરાતને સ્પર્શે છે. જ્યારે આંતરરાષ્ટ્રીય સીમા પાકિસ્તાન સાથે અને જળસીમા અરબી સમુદ્ર સાથે સ્પર્શે છે. ગુજરાતને 1600 કિલોમીટર લાંબો દરિયા કિનારો મળેલો છે. ગુજરાતમાં 26 લોકસભા બેઠકો અને 182 વિધાનસભા બેઠકો છે. સોમનાથ, દ્વારકા, પાલિતાણા, પાવાગઢ, અંબાજી, ભદ્રેશ્વર, શામળાજી, તારંગા અને ગિરનાર રાજ્યના મુખ્ય ધાર્મિક સ્થાનોમાં સામેલ છે અને આખા ભારતમાં જાણીતા છે. આખા એશિયામાં સિંહો એકમાત્ર ગીરના અભ્યારણમાં જોવા મળે છે.

1962ની પહેલી લોકસભા ચૂંટણીથી ગુજરાતમાં 1984 સુધી એકંદરે કોંગ્રેસનું વર્ચસ્વ રહ્યું છે. જો કે 1967માં સ્વતંત્રતા પક્ષે અને 1977માં બીએલડી દ્વારા કોંગ્રેસને ટક્કર મળી હતી. ભાજપના પુરોગામી ભારતીય જનસંઘનો ગુજરાતમાં ઠીકઠીક જનાધાર ઉભો થવા લાગ્યો હતો. પરંતુ ભાજપ બન્યા બાદ 1989માં જનતાદળ સાથેના જોડાણે ગુજરાતમાં તેનો રાજકીય પ્રભાવ વધારવાનું શરૂ કર્યું હતું.

રામજન્મભૂમિ આંદોલનના સમયગાળામાં શંકરસિંહ વાઘેલા જેવા કદ્દાવાર નેતાના બળવા છતાં ભાજપ સતત ગુજરાતમાં લોકસભા અને વિધાનસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં 1989થી સતત સારો દેખાવ કરતું રહ્યું છે અને ગુજરાતમાં 24 વર્ષમાં થોડાક સમયગાળામાં શંકરસિંહ વાઘેલાની રાજપાની સરકારને બાદ કરતા ગુજરાતમાં સત્તા સ્થાને ભાજપની સરકાર જ જોવા મળી છે. જો કે 2017ની વિધાનસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં પાટીદાર અનામત આંદોલનની અસર તળે ભાજપને ગુજરાતમાં ત્યારે 100થી ઓછી બેઠકો પર જીત મળી હતી. આવા સંજોગોમાં 2014માં 26માંથી 26 બેઠકો જીતનારા ભાજપ સામે કોંગ્રેસને 2019ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં સારો દેખાવ કરવાની આશા દેખાઈ રહી છે.

અમદાવાદમાં સીબડલ્યૂસીની બેઠક પહેલા કોંગ્રેસના ત્રણ ધારાસભ્યો ભાજપમાં જોડાવાના આંચકા વચ્ચે હાર્દિક પટેલના કોંગ્રેસમાં જોડાવાને કારણે 2019ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં કોંગ્રેસના નેતાઓને ગુજરાતમાં ઘણી મોટી તકો દેખાઈ રહી છે. ઓક્ટોબર- 2001થી મે- 2014 સુધી નરેન્દ્ર મોદી ગુજરાતના મુખ્યપ્રધાન રહ્યા હતા. જો કે આ સમયગાળામાં 2004 અને 2009ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીઓમાં કોંગ્રેસ આશ્ચર્યજનક રીતે હિંદુત્વની રાજનીતિના ગઢ ગણાતા ગુજરાતમાં બેઠી થતી દેખાઈ હતી. અહીં એક વાત પણ ઉલ્લેખનીય છે કે ગુજરાતમાં કોંગ્રેસની સાથે નિશ્ચિત પ્રમાણમાં વોટરો કોંગ્રેસ સાથે જોડાયેલા રહ્યા છે.

એક નજર કરીએ 2014થી માંડીને 1962 સુધીની લોકસભા ચૂંટણીઓના આંકડા પર…

2014ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં ભાજપને 26માંથી 26 બેઠકો અને 60.1 ટકા વોટ પ્રાપ્ત થયા હતા. તો 2014માં કોંગ્રેસને 33.3 ટકા વોટ મળવા છતાં એકપણ બેઠક નસીબ થઈ નહીં અને અન્યને 6.6 ટકા વોટ સાથે ખાતું ખોલાવવામાં સફળતા મળી નહીં. ગુજરાતના તત્કાલિન મુખ્યપ્રધાન નરેન્દ્ર મોદી ભાજપના વડાપ્રધાન પદના ઉમેદવાર હતા અને ગુજરાતમાં મોદી લહેરમાં કોંગ્રેસનો કારમો રકાસ થયો હતો.

2009ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં ગુજરાતમાં ભાજપને 15 બેઠકો અને 46.5 ટકા વોટ, કોંગ્રેસને 11 બેઠકો અને 43.4 ટકા વોટ અને અન્યને 10.1 ટકા વોટ પ્રાપ્ત થયા હતા.

2004ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં ભાજપને 14 બેઠકો અને 47.4 ટકા વોટ, કોંગ્રેસને 12 બેઠકો અને 43.9 ટકા વોટ અને અન્યને 8.7 ટકા વોટ પ્રાપ્ત થયા હતા.

ગુજરાતની રાજકીય તાસિર

લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીના પરિણામો

વર્ષ            ભાજપ                  કોંગ્રેસ                  અન્ય

2014        26(60.1%)        00(33.3%)           00(6.6)

2009        15(46.5%)        11(43.4%)           00(10.1)

2004        14(47.4%)        12(43.9%)           00(8.%)

1999ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં ભાજપને 52.5 ટકા વોટ સાથે 20 બેઠકો, કોંગ્રેસને 45.4 ટકા વોટ સાથે માત્ર છ બેઠકો અને અન્યને માત્ર 2.1 ટકા વોટ મળ્યા હતા.

1998ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં ભાજપને 48.3 ટકા વોટ સાથે 19 બેઠકો, કોંગ્રેસના 36.5 ટકા વોટ સાથે માત્ર સાત બેઠકો અને અન્યને 15.2 ટકા વોટ પ્રાપ્ત થયા હતા.

1996ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં ભાજપને 48.5 ટકા વોટ સાથે 16 બેઠકો, કોંગ્રેસને 38.7 ટકા વોટ સાથે 10 બેઠકો અને અન્યને 12.8 ટકા મત મળ્યા હતા.

1991ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં ભાજપને 50.4 ટકા વોટ સાથે 20 બેઠકો, કોંગ્રેસને 29 ટકા વોટ સાથે માત્ર પાંચ બેઠકો અને જનતાદળ-ગુજરાતને 13.1 ટકા વોટ સાથે એક બેઠક પ્રાપ્ત થઈ હતી.

1989ની લોકસભા ચૂંટણીમાં જનતાદળ સાથેના ગઠબંધનના સાથી એવા ભાજપને 16.6 ટકા વોટ અને 12 બેઠકો તથા જનતાદળને 27.8 ટકા વોટ સાથે 11 બેઠકો પ્રાપ્ત થઈ હતી. જો કે કોંગ્રેસ 37.2 ટકા વોટ મેળવવા છતાં 1984ની 24 બેઠકો પરથી સીધી માત્ર ત્રણ બેઠકો પર આવી ગઈ હતી.

ગુજરાતની રાજકીય તાસિર

લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીના પરિણામો

વર્ષ            ભાજપ                  કોંગ્રેસ                  અન્ય

1999        20(52.5%)       06(45.4%)           00(2.%)

1998        19(48.3%)       07(36.5%)           00(15.%)

1996        16(48.5%)       10(38.7%)           00(12.%)

1991        20(50.4%)       05(29%)             01(13.1%)(JD-G)

1989        12(16.6%)      03(37.2%)             11(27.8%)JD

1984માં ભાજપને 16.6 ટકા વોટ અને માત્ર એક જ બેઠક પ્રાપ્ત થઈ હતી, જ્યારે કોંગ્રેસને 53.2 ટકા વોટ સાથે 24 બેઠકો અને જનતા પાર્ટીને 16.6 ટકા વોટ સાથે એક જ બેઠક પ્રાપ્ત થઈ હતી.

1980ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં કોંગ્રેસને 54.8 ટકા વોટ સાથે 25 બેઠકો, જનતા પાર્ટીને 36.9 ટકા સાથે એક જ બેઠક પ્રાપ્ત થઈ હતી.

જ્યારે 1977ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં કોંગ્રેસને 46.9 ટકા વોટ સાથે 10 બેઠકો અને બીએલડીને 49.5 ટકા વોટ સાથે 16 બેઠકો પર જીત મળી હતી.

ગુજરાતની રાજકીય તાસિર

લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીના પરિણામો

વર્ષ            ભાજપ                  કોંગ્રેસ                  અન્ય

1984        01(16.6%)       24(53.2%)         01(16.6%)JNP

1980             –                25(54.8%)         01(36.9%)JNP

1977              –               10(46.9%)          16(49.5%)BLD

1971ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં કોંગ્રેસને 44.9 ટકા વોટ સાથે 11 બેઠકો, કોંગ્રેસ-ઓર્ગેનાઈઝેશનને 39.7 ટકા વોટ સાથે 11 બેઠકો અને સ્વતંત્રતા પક્ષને 5.5 ટકા વોટ સાથે બે બેઠકો પ્રાપ્ત થઈ હતી. જ્યારે 2.2 ટકા વોટ મળવા છતાં ભારતીય જનસંઘને એકપણ બેઠક મળી ન હતી.

1967ની લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીમાં કોંગ્રેસને 46.9 ટકા વોટ અને 11 બેઠકો અને સ્વતંત્રતા પક્ષને 39.9 ટકા વોટ સાથે 12 બેઠકો અને અપક્ષને 9.5 ટકા વોટ અને એક બેઠક મળી હતી.

ગુજરાતની રાજકીય તાસિર

લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીના પરિણામો

CONG       CONG(O)         SWA                BJS             IND

1971     11(44.9%)       11(39.7%)  02(5.5%)       00(2.2%)     —

1967     11(46.9%)       —-                 12(39.9%)      01(9.5%) —–

ગુજરાતની રચના બાદ યોજાયેલી 1962ની પ્રથમ લોકસભા ચૂંટણીમાં કોંગ્રેસને 52.6 ટકા વોટ સાથે 16 બેઠકો, સ્વતંત્રતા પક્ષને 25 ટકા વોટ સાથે ચાર બેઠકો અને પ્રજા સોશયાલિસ્ટ પાર્ટીને 7.1 ટકા વોટ સાથે માત્ર બે બેઠકો પ્રાપ્ત થઈ હતી.

ગુજરાતની રાજકીય તાસિર

લોકસભાની ચૂંટણીના પરિણામો

1962

પક્ષ            બેઠક           વોટનું પ્રમાણ

CONG        16                 52.6%

SWA          04                  25%

PSP           01                  7.1%

NJP           01                  3.7%

ચૂંટણીમાં જ્ઞાતિવાદી સમીકરણોની એક આગવી ભૂમિકા હોય છે. ગુજરાતમાં સામાન્ય શ્રેણીના 30 ટકા, ઓબીસીના 35 ટકા, અનુસૂચિત જાતિના 12 ટકા અને અનુસૂચિત જનજાતિના 13 ટકા વોટર્સ છે. જ્યારે ગુજરાતની કુલ વસ્તીમાં 10 ટકા મુસ્લિમો છે.

ગુજરાતનું જ્ઞાતિ સમીકરણ

કેટેગરી         વસ્તી પ્રમાણ

સામાન્ય          30%

ઓબીસી        35%

એસસી         12%

એસટી          13%

મુસ્લિમ         10%

(સ્ત્રોત- સેન્સેસ, સીએસડીએસ, એનઈએસ )

ગુજરાતમાં બ્રાહ્મણ 3 ટકા, જૈન 2 ટકા, લેઉવા પટેલ 9 ટકા અને કડવા પટેલ 6 ટકા, અન્ય સવર્ણ જ્ઞાતિઓનું પ્રમાણ નવ ટકા છે. આ વર્ગના મોટાભાગના મતદાતાઓ અત્યાર સુધી એકંદરે ભાજપના ટેકેદાર રહ્યા છે. ઠાકોર 8 ટકા, કોળી 8 ટકા, રાજપૂત 7 ટકા, અન્ય ઓબીસી 12 ટકા, એસસી 12 ટકા, અને આદિવાસી 13 ટકા તથા મુસ્લિમ 10 ટકા છે.

ગુજરાતનું જ્ઞાતિ સમીકરણ

જ્ઞાતિ                   વસ્તી પ્રમાણ

બ્રાહ્મણ                 3%

જૈન                    2%

લેઉવા પટેલ            9%

કડવા પટેલ            6%

અન્ય સવર્ણ            9%

ઠાકોર                  8%

કોળી                   8%

અન્ય ક્ષત્રિય            7%

અન્ય ઓબીસી          12%

એસસી                 12%

એસટી                  13%

મુસ્લિમ                 10%

(સ્ત્રોત- સેન્સેસ, સીએસડીએસ, એનઈએસ )

ગુજરાતમાં ક્ષેત્રવાર જ્ઞાતિ પ્રભાવ

લેઉવા પટેલ સૌરાષ્ટ્ર-કચ્છ અને દક્ષિણ ગુજરાતમાં રાજકીય વર્ચસ્વ ધરાવે છે. કડવા પટેલ ઉત્તર ગુજરાત અને સૌરાષ્ટ્રના વિસ્તારોમાં અસરકારક ચૂંટણી સમીકરણોમાં મહત્વની ભૂમિકા ભજવે છે. ઉત્તર ગુજરાત અને મધ્ય ગુજરાતમાં ઠાકોર સમુદાયનો રાજકીય પ્રભાવ ઘણો મોટો છે. જ્યારે આદિવાસી મતદાતાઓ ગુજરાતની પૂર્વ પટ્ટીમાં પ્રભુત્વ ધરાવે છે. કોળી અને દરબારોનું  સૌરાષ્ટ્ર અને મધ્ય ગુજરાતમાં વર્ચસ્વ છે. જ્યારે મધ્ય ગુજરાત અને દક્ષિણ ગુજરાતની બેઠકો પર મુસ્લિમ મતદાતાઓ નિર્ણાયક પ્રભાવ મત સમીકરણો દ્વારા ઉભો કરી શકે તેમ છે.

-Aanand Shukla

For Further Reference: http://www.revoi.in/gujarat-loksabha-election-1962-to-2014/

 

 

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